Setting aside that the timing of the Wagner rebellion (or “mutiny” or “coup”) led by Yevgeny Prigozhin was convenient in the first place, now it has been aborted.
I am no military or intelligence expert and I have no direct knowledge, but simply consider what we have been allowed to see: reports of Wagner troop movements that were fast and without dramatic resistance, reports of helicopters being shot down, a few videos of vehicles being blown up, a few videos of armor in the streets and troops taking a stroll, flights leaving Moscow (possibly carrying VIPs), you know, that sort of thing.
In other words, not much in a way.
And now a deal has been negotiated with the help of Belarus.
This is something I expect to see in 24 and I admittedly am a little surprised someone pulled this theater off in a real-life setting with this kind of pacing. Screenwriters can learn a thing or two from this regarding pacing and structure.
I could be wrong, of course, but two possibilities (that do not exclude each other) come to mind:
1. This was/is a move to isolate Russian deep-state elements.
2a. The repositioning of Wagner assets is in preparation for whatever the Russian military has in mind, whether it is offense and/or defense in anticipation of something stupid by Ukraine and/or NATO.
2b. Related to the above, the repositioning of Wagner assets was/is a distraction to other preparations, i.e. “We’re pretending to move our stuff to go against Wagner when we’re really moving it for Ukraine and NATO.”
By the way, whether one likes or agrees with Putin is beside the point. It is safe to assume that he is way more competent in running Russia than the clowns who run other countries.
In any case, I am not dismissing this as insignificant. If anything, this could be way more significant than it looks. As usual, prepare for the worst. Interesting times indeed…
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