Do COVID Vaccinations Facilitate the Spreading of Disease?

There have been predictions that the currently available COVID-19 “vaccines” may facilitate the infection and spread of the disease to others, including new variants. That’s hardly news as vaccines that don’t work properly have been observed to do that. On a related note, a pre-print study found that vaccinated individuals (Astrazeneca) who were infected had 251 times the viral load compared to those infected in 2020.


Now that the vaccinations have been going on for at least a few months (depending on the part of the world), it may be worth looking at the numbers. The below is a crude and simplistic look at several countries. Admittedly, overlaying the stats of other diseases, lockdown periods, and the number of breakthrough cases (of vaccinated individuals) will provide a better picture. The last mentioned is conveniently not announced or easy to find.


The plots are presented as non-averaged weekly stats. As I obtained daily data from different sources, I tried to take the data from the end of the week whenever possible which I was mostly able to. At worse, the different categories may be misaligned by up to a week, which is no big deal given the range and purpose.


Please note the two different axes:

  • Dotted orange line is cumulative fully vaccinated individuals “V Full” – left.

  • Solid light blue line is cumulative cases “I” – left.

  • Dashed light blue line is weekly cases “dI” – right.

  • Dashed black line is cumulative deaths “D” – right.

I do not resort to using multiple pretty colors as I am trying to avoid issues for those who are colorblind or have color deficiencies.


The first on the list is Israel because they started their vaccination rollout earlier than some and they have been/are doing so quickly.

Israel
Israel

After approximately 20 weeks of people beginning to be fully vaccinated, cases increased. What is concerning is that the cumulative cases also noticeably increase. This should flatten out (even when increasing) if the vaccine is working and as more of the population are being vaccinated.


London, UK
London, UK

Approximately 22 weeks after full vaccinations began or 10 weeks when the rate of full vaccinations increased, cases increased dramatically. Like Israel, the cumulative cases and deaths also noticeably increase.


Also, according to Public Health England’s Technical Briefing 22, released September 3, there are a total of 492,528 cases of Delta in England from 1 February 2021 to 29 August 2021. Of this, 108,870 (22.4%) have received one dose and 113,823 (23.1%) are at least 14 days post-dose 2.


It should be noted that of the 113,823 who are in effect fully vaccinated, 51,420 are >= 50 years of age. There are 71,107 infected in that age group, meaning 72.3% of infected are fully vaccinated for >= 50 years of age. See Table 5 for the breakdown.


India
India

India was doing not too badly last year. When people began to be fully vaccinated, cases picked up although I am not sure if that can be attributed to vaccinations since it may take at least a few weeks to take effect. The rate of infections did noticeably increase about 6 weeks later. Both the cumulative cases and deaths seem to be flattening out for now.


Below are eight European countries. Whilst country-level stats have large numbers, it covers states/provinces/regions that may differ in habits and restrictions. As such, trends could possibly be “evened out”. Nonetheless, it may serve as a crude indicator.

Austria
Austria
Belgium
Belgium
Germany
Germany
Spain
Spain

The sudden drop of dI in 2021 week 10 is presumably due to either re-classification of what was previously considered as positive cases or an isolated error in the data.


France
France

The sudden drop of dI in 2021 weeks 20 to 22 is presumably due to either re-classification of what was previously considered as positive cases or an isolated error in the data.

Italy
Italy
Poland
Poland
Sweden
Sweden

As one can see, for the above European countries, approximately 22 to 24 weeks after full vaccinations began, cases increased. The exception is Poland, where things seem to have settled although in recent weeks cases have increased again. In the case of Spain, France and Italy, the cumulative figures aren’t exactly flattening out.


Brazil
Brazil

Brazil is difficult to decipher, as cases increased 10 weeks after full vaccinations began before dropping. The absolute number is still high but the rate is dropping. The cumulative cases are only settling now and the rate of deaths actually increased which it arguably shouldn’t have.


Since Australia has been in the news for their severe restrictions despite the relatively low number of cases and deaths, two states are included below. New South Wales and Victoria are presented separately due to the different restrictions.

New South Wales, Australia
New South Wales, Australia
Victoria, Australia
Victoria, Australia

For both states, approximately 6 to 8 weeks after full vaccinations began, cases increased. Obviously, cumulative cases also increased although few deaths are recorded.


Tokyo, Japan
Tokyo, Japan

Approximately 4 weeks after full vaccinations began, cases increased but the rate noticeably more so at 10 weeks after. Neither the cumulative cases and deaths are flattening out.



Admittedly, even if more data are included in these plots, they don’t definitively prove that the vaccinated are spreading the disease. However, they do support the possibility and certainly do not eliminate it. Even Poland, where things look like it’s settling has an increasing rate of cases in recent weeks.


Of the above, Israel, London, France, Spain and Tokyo seem to be the more convincing examples that support the hypothesis that these so-called vaccines are facilitating the spreading of the disease.



Sources


COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)


European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker


Tokyo Metropolitan Government COVID-19 Information Website


https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

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