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Study: COVID-19 Vaccinated at Higher Risk of Death

An Italian study by M. Alessandria et al titled “A Critical Analysis of All-Cause Deaths during COVID-19 Vaccination in an Italian Province” published on 30 June 2024 has found that the vaccinated have a higher risk of death.

The paper is 16 pages long. One of the motivations of this retrospective cohort study was to correct any immortal time bias (ITB) in favor of vaccinated subjects caused by “incorrect management of follow-up times”.

The sample considered are those who resided in the Pescara province on 1 January 2021, aged 10 years and older, and without a positive COVID-19 swab on that date. The study period was between 1 January 2021 and 15 February 2023.

The study compares unvaccinated to 1-dose, 2-doses and 3-or-4-doses, factoring in the number of days being unvaccinated and since the last dose. The sample size was 290,727 on day one. The study focuses on all-cause deaths rather than “COVID-19-related deaths” due to “questionable attributions”.

As one can see from Table 3 reproduced below, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause deaths indicate that risks are generally higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated, particularly with conditions such as diabetes and cancer.

Table 3: All-cause deaths and HRs according to vaccination status in univariate and multivariate analyses.
Table 3: All-cause deaths and HRs according to vaccination status in univariate and multivariate analyses.

As for life expectancy:

For those vaccinated with two doses, the loss of life expectancy (RMTL) in 739 days is 1.37 (CI 95 = 1.27–1.48; p < 0.0001) times that of the unvaccinated. This means that the subjects vaccinated with two doses lost 37% of life expectancy compared to the unvaccinated population during the follow-up considered. The difference between the life expectancy (RMST) of the vaccinated and that of the unvaccinated limited to the period considered is −2.71 (CI 95 = −3.40 to −2.01; p < 0.0001) days. However, to have an easily understandable comparison, if we extrapolate this result to the entire life expectancy of the Pescara population, we will obtain a loss of life expectancy difference of about −3.6 months.

The authors emphasize that this is obviously an extrapolation “made for the sole purpose of giving the reader an idea of the order of magnitude of the RMTL” and may not be a realistic prediction.

In conclusion:

We found all-cause death risks to be even higher for those vaccinated with one and two doses compared to the unvaccinated and that the booster doses were ineffective. We also found a slight but statistically significant loss of life expectancy for those vaccinated with 2 or 3/4 doses.

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