A pre-print study posted on 10 August 2022 titled “Excess mortality in Germany 2020-2022” by C. Kuhbandner and M. Reitzner basically concludes that the observed deaths in 2020 fit the expected numbers but in “2021 the observed number of deaths was far above the expected number in the order of twice the empirical standard deviation”.
The paper begins by discussing the various ways of defining “excess mortality” and the differences the varying methods may yield. Statistics can be a dry if not a parched subject but it is worth a skim.
The results are interesting although hardly unexpected.
The number of deaths in 2020 was as expected but excess mortality did increase later with some fluctuation. See Table 5 below.
In April and May 2021, a significant increase in excess mortality is observed, followed by a decrease up to August. However, other than at the beginning of the year, excess mortality remains above zero so that the increase in excess mortality in April and May is not compensated for. In September there is again a significant excess mortality, which increases in November and is more than doubled in December 2021.
The number of stillbirths per 1000 births in 2020 was also as expected compared to 2019. See Figure 10 below.
However, in the year 2021, a sudden increase of 10.7 percents [sic] is observed in the second quarter of the year 2021 compared to the mean across the years 2019 and 2020. The number of stillbirts [sic] remains increased in the following quarters, reaching an increase of 9.9 percent in the first quarter of 2022.
The authors make an interesting observation between COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths. In April 2021, the increase in excess mortality does not correspond to the increase in COVID-19 deaths. In other words, there is another cause of death. See Figure 11 below.
Also noteworthy is that cumulative COVID-19 deaths are higher than cumulative excess deaths. See Figure 12 below.
…of the 140.000 reported COVID-19 deaths in the agre [sic] groups over 20 years, more than 93.000 did not show up as excess deaths and are thus contained in the ‘expected’ number of deaths.
In other words, since some COVID-19 deaths are not excess deaths, “[o]ne should rather use the excess mortality curve than the number of reported COVID-19 deaths, or a combination of both” in the context of pandemic measures.
And the real clincher is the following. As already mentioned, the number of deaths in 2020 was generally expected and the excess mortality increased later (April 2021), the trend somewhat matching vaccinations. See Figure 13 below. Correlation is not necessarily causation but one has to wonder…
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