The figures taken as is in the US VAERS regarding COVID injections are concerning to say the least. It is commonly said that adverse events are generally under-reported and under-recorded in the US. Whilst that is highly probable, convincing evidence for that claim is not easy to find.
Dr Jessica Rose and Mathew Crawford recently wrote a study titled “Estimating the number of COVID vaccine deaths in America”. Dr Rose is a molecular biologist and a computational biologist. Mr Crawford is a statistician as far as I can tell.
To summarize:
Using the VAERS database and independent rates of anaphylaxis events from a Mass General study, we computed a 41X under-reporting factor for serious adverse events in VAERS, leading to an estimate of over 150,000 excess deaths caused by the vaccine.
It should be noted that as of 27 August 2021, Dr Rose found 7,149 deaths on VAERS. I am not sure what her search parameters were but that is the number she uses. What I found was different but comparable.
The analysis is commonsensical but interesting. Rose and Crawford first note the massive increase in adverse event reports to VAERS in 2021. Unrelated adverse events from 2021 are comparable to previous years, thereby suggesting that 2021 is not an anomalous year where medical professionals tend to over-report.
They then examine the stats for anaphylactic reactions because it typically occurs soon after vaccination and therefore cannot be missed or misattributed.
A study at Mass General Brigham (MGM) that assessed anaphylaxis in a clinical setting after the administration of COVID-19 vaccines published in JAMA on March 8, 2021, found “severe reactions consistent with anaphylaxis occurred at a rate of 2.47 per 10,000” people fully vaccinated. This rate is based on reactions occurring within 2 hours of vaccination, the mean time was 17 minutes after vaccination. This study used “active” surveillance and tried not to miss any cases.
Applying the above rate to the figure found in VAERS:
We’ve vaccinated 97.5M people from the start thru March 2021 and there were 583 reports in VAERS who had an anaphylaxis reaction on their first dose. This suggests that the underreporting rate is 41X.
The math is simple. At that rate, there should be (97,500,000 / 10,000) * 2.47 = 24082.5 reports of anaphylaxis. Therefore, the under-reporting rate is 24082.5 / 583 = 41.31.
If one simply multiplies the deaths by 41, then there are 7,149 * 41 = 293,109 deaths. This is overly simplistic as it ignores “background deaths” and assumes all outcomes follow the same multiplier (under-reporting rate). Rose and Crawford do not do this but apply different rates and consider other studies to validate their estimations before forming a conclusion of “150,000 deaths”.
The study is worth a read as this article does not do it justice.
On a related note, there is a 40-minute presentation from early May by Dr Rose in which she analyzes the VAERS data. She discusses three aspects: the trajectory of the increasing adverse events, evidence of causation, and breakthrough cases.
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