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Pfizer: Vaccine Efficacy Declines ~6% Every Two Months

According to Pfizer’s own report titled “Six Month Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine”, their vaccine “continued to be safe and well tolerated”. Well of course it is.

But the most interesting aspect is about its vaccine efficacy (VE):

During the interval from the approximate start of observed protection at 11 days post-dose 1 to before dose 2, VE increased to 91.7% (95% CI 79.6-97.4).
From its peak post-dose 2, observed VE declined. From 7 days to <2 months post-dose 2, VE was 96.2% (95% CI [93.3-98.1]); from 2 months to <4 months, VE was 90.1% (95% CI [86.6-92.9]); and from 4 months to the data cut-off, VE was 83.7% (95% CI [74.7-89.9]).

In other words:

Efficacy peaked at 96.2% during the interval from 7 days to <2 months post-dose 2, and declined gradually to 83.7% from 4 months post-dose 2 to the data cut-off, an average decline of ~6% every 2 months.

No doubt everyone is different and it is uncertain if the decline will continue linearly, but what’s the point of a so-called vaccine if its efficacy declines approximately 6% every two months?


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